{"id":548,"date":"2011-03-29T17:57:13","date_gmt":"2011-03-29T22:57:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/gazette\/2011\/03\/29\/110329-dwtshandicapping\/"},"modified":"2024-09-11T18:05:42","modified_gmt":"2024-09-11T23:05:42","slug":"110329-dwtshandicapping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/2011\/03\/29\/110329-dwtshandicapping\/","title":{"rendered":"Handicapping DWTS, Season 12"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last year, I made the mistake of predicting the outcome of <i>Dancing With The Stars<\/i> before watching any of the<br \/>\ncompetitors. That was a disaster of epic, Charlie-Sheen-as-a-babysitter proportions. However, after the first viewing,<br \/>\nmy revised handicapping was pretty darned good, if I do say so myself (and I must, because no one else will). I picked<br \/>\nJennifer Gray, Kyle Massey, and Brandi Norwood to finish in the top three, and nailed two of them. Would have been<br \/>\nthree, but who could have predicted the Bristol Palin juggernaut?<\/p>\n<p>So, illogically emboldened, and having watched TWO dances this season, I now offer my expert opinion as to how this<br \/>\nseason will unfold, thereby saving you the trouble of having to actually watch it unless you don&#8217;t have anything better<br \/>\nto do, in which case I&#8217;d advise you not to admit it.<\/p>\n<p>But first&#8230;let me just observe that this year&#8217;s cast is remarkable in that there are no &#8220;sleepers,&#8221; no dancers in<br \/>\namateur clothing. I think everyone is equally new to dancing, and while that doesn&#8217;t imply that they&#8217;re equally talented<br \/>\nor motivated, this should make the competition much more, uh, competitive than in the past.<\/p>\n<p>And, for whatever reason, it seems that the judges have also elevated their expectations. Some of the performances<br \/>\nin the first week would have been lauded in the fourth or fifth week of earlier seasons, and they were met with<br \/>\ndisapproval by the judges. Len, in particular, seems to be more surly than usual, and out of step with the other two<br \/>\njudges.<\/p>\n<p>OK, here&#8217;s my handicapping, based SOLELY on dancing ability and potential (that is, I&#8217;m ignoring the &#8220;Bristol Palin<br \/>\nFactor,&#8221; although the only person who might benefit from it is Kirstie Alley). The celeb name is first, followed by his<br \/>\nor her pro.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Chelsea Kane &amp; Mark Ballas &#8211; Chelsea is terminally cute, and has a wonderful on-floor personality. I think she&#8217;s<br \/>\nathletic and coordinated, and danced much better than her early scores indicate. <b>Top 3 finisher<\/b>, if Mark&#8217;s weird<br \/>\nchoreography doesn&#8217;t sink her.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-top: 2em;\">Chris Jericho &amp; Cheryl Burke &#8211; OK, this guy&#8217;s a shocker. Great personality, great moves, and apparently highly<br \/>\nmotivated. Humble for a professional wrestler. I like his chances; he could well be another Emmitt Smith, but at least a<br \/>\n<b>top 3 finisher<\/b>. (As an aside, I wish to go on record as saying Hollywood could do a lot worse than to recruit<br \/>\nactors from the pro wrestling ranks. The Rock has established himself as a potential A-Lister, and Paul Levesque (aka<br \/>\nTriple H) turned in a surprisingly nuanced performance in <i>The Chaperone<\/i>. I&#8217;m not a pro wrestling fan, but I&#8217;m<br \/>\nbeginning to be a fan of pro wrestlers as actors.)<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-top: 2em;\">Hines Ward &amp; Kym Johnson &#8211; Another very likable and motivated guy. Kym is a great partner for him, and I think<br \/>\nhe&#8217;s a <b>top fiver<\/b>.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-top: 2em;\">Kendra Wilkinson &amp; Louis van Amstel &#8211; Playboy bunny with self-esteem issues. Go figure. And yet&#8230;she&#8217;s not a<br \/>\nbad dancer, by any stretch. <b>Top seven<\/b>.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-top: 2em;\">Kirstie Alley &amp; Maksim Chmerkovskiy &#8211; Kirstie made a terrible impression during the cast introductions, and,<br \/>\nfrankly, everyone thought she would be this season&#8217;s Cloris Leachman&#8230;you know, the obligatory &#8220;oh isn&#8217;t she so brave<br \/>\nfor trying this&#8221; celeb. But Kirstie is a hoot, and is working her butt off (literally?). Big fan base (no pun intended),<br \/>\nand I think she&#8217;ll be a <b>top fiver<\/b>.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-top: 2em;\">Mike Catherwood &amp; Lacey Schwimmer &#8211; Lacey got to the finals with Kyle Massey last year, but poor Mike is beyond<br \/>\nher capabilities. <b>He&#8217;ll be gone after tonight<\/b>. And it&#8217;s a shame, because he&#8217;s a likable guy, too.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-top: 2em;\">Petra Nemcova &amp; Dmitry Chaplin &#8211; Supermodels typically don&#8217;t do well in <i>DWTS<\/i> and Petra won&#8217;t be the<br \/>\nexception. Her tsunami-related backstory will get her some fan votes, though, and she doesn&#8217;t suck at dancing, so<br \/>\n<b>she&#8217;ll be around a couple more weeks<\/b>.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-top: 2em;\">Ralph Macchio &amp; Karina Smirnoff &#8211; Ralph&#8217;s the mystery man. He certainly wowed the audience with his first two<br \/>\ndances, but the second one wasn&#8217;t great, and the judges called him on it. I don&#8217;t know whether he can continue to<br \/>\nmeasure up week after week. I&#8217;ll leave him <b>in the top five<\/b>, but he could squeeze into the top three.<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-top: 2em;\">Romeo &amp; Chelsie Hightower &#8211; You&#8217;re probably comparing him to Kyle Massey, but he&#8217;s no Kyle. He doesn&#8217;t have the<br \/>\npersonality to get the fan votes like Kyle did, but is probably as good a dancer. <b><b>Gone in six weeks.<\/b><\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-top: 2em;\">Sugar Ray Leonard &amp; Anna Trebunsakaya &#8211; I had high hopes for Sugar (as Bruno calls him), but, sadly, he&#8217;s this<br \/>\nyear&#8217;s David Hasselhoff. <b>TKO in three<\/b>. (And it&#8217;s a shame because we really need to see Anna every week.<br \/>\nIYKWIM.)<\/li>\n<li style=\"margin-top: 2em;\">Wendy Williams &amp; Tony Dovolani &#8211; She&#8217;s not quite as annoying as Niecy Nash, but every bit as dramatic. Can&#8217;t<br \/>\njudge her fan base, but based on her dancing, <b>she&#8217;ll be the second one to go<\/b>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>OK, it&#8217;s probably hard to figure out my predicted lineup based on the preceding, so here&#8217;s a more direct<br \/>\nversion&#8230;my predicted order of finish. Check me in May!<\/p>\n<p><i>Update: The numbers in parentheses show the actual week of exit for each celebrity.<\/i><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Chelsea Kane &#8211; <i>Finals &#8211; #3<\/i><\/li>\n<li>Ralph Macchio <i>(8)<\/i><\/li>\n<li>Chris Jericho <i>(5)<\/i><\/li>\n<li>Hines Ward &#8211; <i>Finals &#8211; #1<\/i><\/li>\n<li>Romeo <i>(7)<\/i><\/li>\n<li>Kendra Wilkinson <i>(6)<\/i><\/li>\n<li>Kirstie Alley &#8211; <i>Finals &#8211; #2<\/i><\/li>\n<li>Petra Nemcova <i>(4)<\/i><\/li>\n<li>Sugar Ray Leonard <i>(3)<\/i><\/li>\n<li>Wendy Williams <i>(2)<\/i><\/li>\n<li>Mike Catherwood <i>(1)<\/i><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><i>Should you have the good sense to disagree with my predictions, please leave your own in the comments.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last year, I made the mistake of predicting the outcome of Dancing With The Stars before watching any of the competitors. That was a disaster of epic, Charlie-Sheen-as-a-babysitter proportions. However, after the first viewing, my revised handicapping was pretty darned good, if I do say so myself (and I must, because no one else will).&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/2011\/03\/29\/110329-dwtshandicapping\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Handicapping DWTS, Season 12<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,48],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dancing-ballroom","category-television-radio","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=548"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14134,"href":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548\/revisions\/14134"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ericsiegmund.com\/fireant\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}